000
WTNT31 KNHC 041146
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  16A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
800 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007
 
...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX MAKES LANDFALL IN
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AT CATEGORY FIVE STRENGTH...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR NICARAGUA FROM PUERTO CABEZAS
NORTHWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER...AND FOR HONDURAS FROM
LIMON EASTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS WEST OF LIMON...FOR
THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF
BELIZE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ISLA DE
PROVIDENCIA....FOR NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF PUERTO CABEZAS TO
PRINZAPOLKA....AND FOR HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON TO THE
HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER... INCLUDING ISLAS DE LA BAHIA.  A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
F

Here is a State Emergency Operations Center advisory from late Monday:

 After taking only 51 hours to intensify from a tropical depression to a
Category 5 Hurricane, Felix has weakened slightly today in the western
Caribbean Sea on its march towards Central America.  At 5 PM Monday, the
eye of Category 4 Felix was located about 250 miles to the east of Cabo
Gracias a Dios on the Nicaragua / Honduras border.  Maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 135 mph, and Felix continues a brisk westward pace
near 20 mph.  The only good news for Central America is that the steering
ridge of high pressure that stretches across the Gulf of Mexico will keep
Felix on a fast westward pace through landfall on Tuesday morning.  This
should reduce the chances of another flooding tragedy similar to what
occurred when slow-moving Hurricane Mitch moved into Central America in
late October 1998 and caused upwards of 11,000 deaths.  The ridge in place
to the north of Felix will likely also prevent it from moving into the Bay
of Campeche (SW Gulf of Mexico) and impacting the locations struck by Dean
last month.

Thunderstorms have become slightly better organized today around a low
pressure center centered about 200 miles to the east of Jacksonville.  This
system should continue to move slowly eastward during the next 24 hours
before steering currents aloft collapse in the western Atlantic Ocean.
Some of the computer model guidance indicates that this disturbance will
turn back towards the west or northwest in the direction of the U.S. east
coast by late this week or next weekend.  Since this system will be in the
vicinity of the Gulf Stream, there is the potential for development into a
tropical depression or a tropical storm later this week.  While there are
currently no Hurricane Hunter flights scheduled to investigate this
disturbance, the National Hurricane Center has run their tropical models on
this system for the first time this afternoon.  We will continue to closely
monitor this slowly developing system since it could have a potential
impact to the United States later this week or next weekend.

The tropical wave that has been camping out in the central Atlantic Ocean
this weekend continues to be impacted by easterly wind shear and dry air
aloft.   This wave is nearly stationary and the chances for significant
development are diminishing.

Ben Nelson
State Meteorologist
Florida Division of Emergency Management