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Hurricane Felix Not Threatening Florida |
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09/02/2007 |
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The State EmergencyOperations Center says Hurricane Felix is no threat to Florida - at least not for the next five days. And there is no threat at any point if the hurricane follows a track simiiar to Hurricane Dean into Yucutan as expected. A wave in the Atlantic is being monitored by the ECO and National Hurricane Center and also is not a Florida threat at this point.
From NHC 5 a.m. advisory:
000
WTNT31 KNHC 020846
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 AM AST SUN SEP 02 2007
...FELIX STRENGTHENS TO A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE AS ITS CENTER
PASSES JUST NORTH OF BONAIRE...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE...AND CURACAO.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA.
From State Emergency Operations Center Saturday afternoon:
Tropical storm Felix has continued to strengthen today in the southeastern Caribbean Sea despite its proximity to the South American coastline. At 2 PM, the center of Tropical Storm Felix was located about 250 miles to the east of the island of Bonaire in the southern Caribbean Sea. This position is also about 1430 miles to the southeast of Key West. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph, and Felix continues a brisk westward pace around 18 mph.
A ridge of high pressure will remain situated to the north of Felix throughout the Labor Day weekend. This feature will steer Felix on a steady west to west-northwest course through the Caribbean during the next 3-4 days. The official forecast moves Felix's center just to the north of Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba on Sunday morning as the cyclone reaches hurricane strength. Felix is forecast to pass well to the south of Hispaniola and Jamaica on Sunday and Labor Day.
Felix has the potential to become a major hurricane once the cyclone reaches the western Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. The forecast beyond Tuesday will be dependent on whether the ridge currently to the north of Felix moves westward in tandem with the cyclone or not. If the ridge does extend westward, then Felix will threaten Belize and Central America by the mid portion of next week. If the ridge weakens, then Felix may turn northwestward and threaten the resort areas of Mexico's Yucatan peninsula and potentially enter the Gulf of Mexico. As is usually the case, the longer-term computer models show some spread in their projections for Felix's location in the 5-7 day time frame. In any case, Felix is not a threat to the state during the next 5 days.
A tropical wave located in the central Atlantic Ocean has become better organized today. Showers and thunderstorms have developed around a weak low pressure center that is located about 1550 miles to the east of Barbados, or more than 3000 miles to the east-southeast of Miami. Easterly wind shear is currently preventing this wave from becoming a tropical depression. However, the National Hurricane Center expects that this system will move into a more favorable environment for development during the next few days in the central Atlantic. A ridge of high pressure located to the north and northeast of this wave should steer it on a westward course during the next several days. This system could threaten the Lesser Antilles by late next week.
Ben Nelson
State Meteorologist
Florida Division of Emergency Management
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