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Western Caribbean Tropical Disturbance Must be Monitored |
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11/05/2008 |
From the state Emergency Operations Center late Tuesday:
Thunderstorm activity has increased around a broad low pressure center located just east of the Nicaragua and Honduras coastlines in the western Caribbean Sea. This tropical disturbance is moving slowly towards the north-northwest and is currently in an environment that is favorable for additional development. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a medium probability for additional development during the next 48 hours. The Hurricane Hunters have been preliminarily tasked to investigate this system in the western Caribbean Wednesday afternoon.
While conditions in the western Caribbean are currently hospitable for tropical development, strong southwesterly wind shear exists across the entire Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic Ocean, and these strong winds extend into the northwestern Caribbean Sea. A majority of the computer model guidance suggests that this weather pattern will remain in place into the weekend, and thus locations in the western or central Caribbean Sea face a greater risk for a potential impact from this disturbance.
Weak steering currents should also remain in place in the western Caribbean Sea during the next few days, so this system will likely maintain a slow north or northwestward trajectory through Friday. If this disturbance remains in the western Caribbean and does not move inland into Nicaragua or Honduras, then it could become a tropical storm (Paloma) in 2-3 days.
A cold front moving through the eastern United States this weekend could push this system on a northeastward path towards the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, or Cuba. As is normally the case with developing tropical systems, computer model guidance is suspect and subject to change.
Ben Nelson
State Meteorologist
Florida Division of Emergency Management
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