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Hurricane Gustav Tuesday evening update |
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08/27/2008 |
From the state EOC at 8:30 p.m.:
At 8 PM, the eye of Hurricane Gustav was located along the southwestern Haitian coastline, or about 155 miles to the southeast of Guantanamo Bay, Cuba. This position is also about 700 miles to the southeast of Key West and 1360 miles to the southeast of New Orleans. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph and Gustav is moving towards the northwest around 7 mph. Gustav made landfall earlier today in southwestern Haiti with sustained winds near 90 mph.
Computer model guidance remains in agreement on Gustav's path through the next 3 days as a ridge of high pressure aloft builds over the Bahamas and south Florida. This weather feature is expected to steer Gustav on a westerly course once the hurricane fully emerges into Windward Passage tonight. Gustav should remain over very warm waters in between Cuba and Jamaica on Wednesday, and rapid strengthening is forecast to commence by Thursday. Gustav is expected to be at Category 3 strength on Friday when the cyclone potentially impacts the Cayman Islands.
The strength of the ridge aloft over Florida later this week will likely determine when and where Gustav enters the Gulf of Mexico. A stronger ridge could keep Gustav on a westward course towards Mexico's Yucatan peninsula, while a weaker ridge could allow Gustav to turn west-northwestward towards western Cuba. Based on the latest official forecast, only the lower Florida Keys and the western Florida panhandle coast fall within the average track forecast error cone through the next 5 days. It is too early to speculate whether Gustav will change its expected west-northwest course after the hurricane enters the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.
Ben Nelson
State Meteorologist
Florida Division of Emergency Management
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