|
Virgin Islands Disturbance Could Threaten Florida; |
|
|
|
|
08/15/2008 |
Picture to be Clearer Early Next Week
The state Emergency Operations Center says Florida should closely monitor the significant tropical disturbance currently located over Puerto Rico to see what is left and where it is early next week. The system has been expected to develop into a tropical depression and tropical storm, but this has not happened, although it could at almost anytime, state meteorologist Ben Nelson said during a state agencies briefing late this morning.
As Nelson noted during the briefing today and in a written report last night, “steering currents should bring the system very close to the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba during the next couple of days. The mountainous terrain found on these islands could weaken this developing cyclone. If this disturbance remains offshore of these islands, then it will have an opportunity to intensify as the environment aloft looks to be hospitable for development.”
“Beyond Sunday, it is anybody’s guess as to where this system will end up moving,” Nelson said during the briefing. The system could make a northward turn toward the Bahamas or “it could hang out in the Gulf Waters or near the Keys, in a strengthening mode…The potential is there early next week for the system to rapidly strengthen…We just don’t know how much of it will be left.”
The state EOC is remaining at Level 3, monitoring status, throughout the weekend. It could activate early next week, depending on developments.
Here is Nelson’s written report from last night.
State EOC Thursday, 6 p.m.
Hurricane hunters investigating the impressive tropical disturbance this afternoon near the U.S. Virgin Islands have been unable to find a well-defined center of circulation and thus this system has not reached tropical depression status. However, this disturbance continues to slowly organize based on late afternoon satellite imagery and could be classified as a tropical depression later tonight or on Friday. This disturbance is centered about 1,200 miles to the east-southeast of Miami and is moving towards the west-northwest around 15 mph.
The forecast scenario remains uncertain due to the lack of a well-defined circulation. It is important to remember that computer models will likely fluctuate during the next few days as this disturbance organizes into a tropical cyclone. Steering currents aloft will likely bring this system very close to the northern coasts of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and eastern Cuba during the next 48-60 hours. Due to the small nature of this system's developing circulation, the mountainous terrain found on these islands could weaken this developing cyclone. If this disturbance remains offshore of these islands, then it will have an opportunity to intensity as the environment aloft looks to be hospitable for development during the weekend.
A majority of the computer model guidance beyond three days suggests a northward turn once the disturbance reaches eastern Cuba or the central/western Bahamas. This turn may be induced by an upper level trough of low pressure that is forecast to exit the United States' eastern seaboard during the early portions of next week. Given all of the uncertainty that currently exists, it is impossible to pinpoint the location of this potential northward turn at this time. There is also the possibility that this system could be left behind in weak steering currents aloft early next week over warm waters.
Ben Nelson
State Meteorologist
Florida Division of Emergency Management
|
