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EOC Watching Two Atlantic Waves |
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08/11/2008 |
One Could Enter Florida Straits by Weekend
From the state Emergency Operations Center this morning:
A tropical wave in the central Atlantic Ocean about 900 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing widespread and disorganized shower activity. However, environmental conditions are favorable for development and this system could become a tropical depression during the next couple of days as it moves west at about 15mph. Most computer models take this system on a west-northwest track towards Puerto Rico and the Turks and Caicos this week before potentially moving into the Florida Straits by the end of the week or during the weekend.
A large area of disturbed weather further eastward, a few hundred miles southwest of the Cape Verde Islands, also has the potential for slow development over the next few days as it moves westward around 15mph. Long-range computer models are still having a hard time with this system, with some models curving the wave northward out to sea and other models taking it southward through the Caribbean. Either way, these two systems will have to be monitored through the week for signs of intensification.
Elsewhere, a tropical wave in the southern-central Caribbean Sea has produced a large area of storms near Panama and Costa Rica. However, this has more to do with upper level features and development of this wave is not expected.
From EOC meteorologist Ben Nelson last night:
A tropical wave located in the east central Atlantic Ocean midway between the Lesser Antilles and the African coast has become better organized during the past 24 hours. This system is moving westward around 20 mph and has the potential to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm (Fay) before reaching the Lesser Antilles by Wednesday or Thursday. Dry air aloft located to the north of this developing circulation should reduce the chance for rapid development during the next few days. This system is about a week away from any potential impact to the United States. The initial computer model track forecasts for this wave are attached to this email.
Long-term computer model guidance suggests that activity the central and eastern Atlantic will increase during the next week (behind the system currently in the east central Atlantic).
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