From the State Emergecy Operations Center July 21, 2008

When taking into account the intensity and duration of tropical cyclones, July 2008 is currently the fourth most active July on record in the Atlantic basin.  The years ranked ahead of July 2008 (1933, 1916, and 2005) all finished with 5 or more major hurricanes and in each of these seasons, at least two Category 3 hurricanes made landfall in the United States.       

At 8 p.m. Monday, the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located about 405
miles to the east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas... Dolly is becoming better organized based on satellite imagery this evening and the cyclone should intensify tonight.  A strong ridge of high pressure aloft situated across the Gulf coast region has been steering Dolly on a brisk westerly course this afternoon around 16 mph.  Computer model guidance suggests that this ridge will rapidly break down on Tuesday, which will cause Dolly to decelerate as the cyclone approaches the Texas or northern Mexican coast. Hurricane watches are posted from Port O'Connor, Texas southward to northeastern Mexico, and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect from Port O'Connor northward to San Luis Pass along the middle Texas coast... 

At 5 PM Monday, the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located about 265 miles to the east-northeast of Cape Hatteras, NC.  Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph, and Cristobal is moving northeastward around 13 mph.  Cristobal is forecast to accelerate northeastward away from the warm Gulf Stream waters tomorrow, which will hasten weakening of this cyclone.  Cristobal is a threat to the Canadian Maritime region only during the midweek timeframe.

A large tropical wave emerging off the African coastline this evening has the potential to slowly develop this week in the far eastern Atlantic Ocean.

Ben Nelson
Chief Meteorologist
State EOC